In contrast to the men’s race, none of the medallists from the 2022 World U23 Championships return in the women’s event. Nevertheless, a stellar field will fight to make the podium this year and plenty will have realistic hopes of winning the gold.
Although there are no returning medallists, one athlete returns that was a major part in determining the 2022 gold. Jessica Fullagar’s attack on the bike with Kate Waugh went a long in setting up Waugh’s eventual victory. Already this season, she has offered proof of her capacity to drop similar powerful attacks.
In the French Grand Prix, she finished 5th in Fréjus after utilising a break on the bike. Since then, she added a silver medal at the European U23 Championships (finishing 3rd overall).
The rest of the European U23 podium will join Fullagar. Selina Klamt and Tanja Neubert won the gold and bronze medals, respectively, in Balikesir and will be among the favourites to take the gold in Pontevedra.
Klamt is coming off a recent 5th place at the Karlovy Vary World Cup and has enjoyed a fantastic season. She also finished 4th at the European Games, added a Bundesliga medal and placed 29th on her WTCS debut, which stands as one of the best debuts of the season.
Meanwhile, Neubert finished 4th at the European Championships in Madrid, has won an African Cup and a European Cup, and will head to Pontevedra having recently won a silver medal at Bundesliga Hannover.
At last year’s event, Klamt ended up in 4th place and Neubert in 5th, making them the best returning finishers,. Fullagar beat them in the first two disciplines but then the German duo out-ran her by over 2 minutes. Given how strong they have looked this season, they would be a safe bet to make the podium.
Several other athletes return after high finishes last year.
Foremost among them is Costanza Arpinelli after her 6th place in 2022. This season, she has logged finishes of 15th at both the New Plymouth and Tiszaujvaros World Cups. In addition, she finished 31st on her WTCS debut in Montreal, almost matching Klamt’s debut.
Arpinelli’s teammate, Angelica Prestia, will also be a threat after finishing 4th in Tiszaujvaros.
However, even with the talent noted thus far, there is one athlete that stands out. Anahi Alvarez Corral presents a unique threat and is one of the few athletes that could win the race or finish outside of the top-15.
Her form is promising. She is the Americas U23 champion and won the Huatulco World Cup. At both events, she revealed what makes her such a dangerous prospect. She is the fastest runner in the field. Such is her speed, her presence completely shifts the paradigm of the race.
For many people, a good swim and bike split would mean being in the front group or the main pack. For Alvarez, it means being within 2 minutes of the leaders. The reason for this is simple. Outside of the top-10 of a WTCS field, there are very few women she cannot out-split by 2 minutes over 10km.
If that sounds a little absurd, it is because it is. Take a look back to the 2022 iteration of the race. Alvarez clocked 32:39 for the 10km. The next split was by Annika Koch, the silver medallist, who recorded 34:16. After Koch, the next fastest woman was Neubert in 34:31. It is therefore no exaggeration to say that the field will probably need 2 minutes over Alvarez to be confident of keeping her at bay.
If the Mexican athlete loses too much time in the swim and bike, she could be out of contention entirely. But if she gets within striking distance to launch her run, there is a good chance that she will mow down the rest of the field.
Part of what makes the women’s race such a fascinating prospect is the notion that most of the field could have a perfect “normal” race – that is to say being fast in all three disciplines – and then from nowhere find themselves beaten by someone that was a long way behind.
Another candidate for the gold medal will be Cathia Schär. The Swiss athlete won a bronze medal at the European Championships in Madrid and enjoyed a wonderful summer in the WTCS. She finished 12th Montreal, 8th Hamburg and 9th Sunderland. With those results, she became the only female starter with a top-10 in the WTCS (or even a top-20).
She is a superb cyclist and a great runner. Her decision to target the U23 race instead of the WTCS Final (where she is currently ranked 18th) signals that she is all in on claiming the gold. When an athlete ranked that high opts for the World U23 Championships, they often produce something special.
Schär’s involvement could have major ramifications beyond her own result. Her swim is her weak point but in Hamburg she was repeatedly able to save herself on the bike. There is therefore one outcome that no one in the front group will want to see in Pontevedra: Schär catching them with Alvarez on her wheel.
Several other athletes will fancy their chances of getting onto the podium.
Brea Roderick has been steadily growing at the WTCS level. After finishing 34th in Montreal on her debut, she finished 28th in Sunderland and then 24th at the Paris Test Event. She also won the Larache African Cup and could be a dark horse.
A strong Australian team also contains multiple threats. Tara Sosinski won the Asia Cup in Lianyungang and earned a bronze medal in Larache. Charlotte Derbyshire is the Oceania U23 champion and finished 7th at the Yeongdo World Cup.
Jess Ewart McTigue and Ellie Hoitink are likewise talented athletes that could produce a big performance.
Moreover, Barbara De Koning was on a tear at the start of the year as she won four African Cups (in Maselspoort, Nelson Mandela Bay, Swakopmund and M’Diq). Since then, she has not quite recaptured that form, and she recently finished 33rd in Paris and 28th in Karlovy Vary. As a well-rounded athlete, though, she could be a player in the late stages of the race.
Overall, the women’s race seems to boil down to one question. Will Alvarez get close enough to the front group?
If she does or does not, it will be a challenge to guess who will be in the top-5. However, if Alvarez does get close enough to the front group, the gold may be a safer prediction.
One thing to consider is the history of the World U23 Championships. Small lead packs on the bike have been a frequent occurrence and the field will likely break up. At the same time, there has always been space for a lightning quick run split.
There should be something for everyone in Pontevedra. Someone will just have to step up and seize the moment.
TriStats Predictions
- Anahi Alvarez Corral
- Selina Klamt
- Cathia Schär
- Tanja Neubert
- Brea Roderick
